Breaking
Detroit Tigers’ ABS Success Rate Odds Jump 67pp to 68% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 24-hour price surge, pushing YES odds from 1.0% to 68.0% on $152K volume.
Jul 16
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Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,182 stories.
Breaking
Iran military action odds drop 30pp as whale buying diverges from price move
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?” market saw a sharp 30.0 pp fall in YES price while whales increased their YES exposure by $10K, signaling conflicting signals in the tape.
Jul 16
Breaking
Detroit Tigers’ ABS success rate odds jump 46.5 points to 47.4% on Polymarket
Whale buying aligned with a sharp 24-hour price surge on the Tigers’ 2026 MLB ABS success market, signaling growing conviction.
Jul 16
Breaking
Moonshot’s odds for best Chinese AI model by July 2026 jump 28.8pp on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with a sharp rise in YES price from 10.4% to 39.2%, signaling growing market confidence.
Jul 16
Breaking
Messi Golden Ball odds soar 47.6pp to 89.5% as whales back YES with $147K net flow
Whale activity and a near doubling in YES price show strong conviction in Messi winning the 2026 Golden Ball.
Jul 16
Breaking
YES price plunges 32.5pp to 24.5% on UK Home Secretary market as whale flow diverges
Despite a sharp 32.5pp drop in YES price, whales increased net buys by $5K, signaling a split between price action and large trader behavior.
Jul 16
Breaking
Shabana Mahmood Chancellor odds jump 33.3pp to 88.7% with whale backing
Whales supported the sharp 24-hour rise in Shabana Mahmood’s chances to become UK Chancellor in 2026, adding $43K net to YES positions amid $79K total volume.
Jul 16
Breaking
Shabana Mahmood Chancellor odds jump 45.1 points to 88.1% on Polymarket
Whales supported the surge with $43K net buying as market bets sharply increased on Mahmood’s 2026 UK Chancellor prospects.
Jul 16
Breaking
‘No next UK Home Secretary in 2026?’ YES odds plunge 57pp to 16.5% amid whale flow divergence
Whales increased YES-side bets by $5K even as market odds sharply dropped, signaling conflicting signals on UK Home Secretary prospects.
Jul 16
Breaking
Ethereum $2,000 July YES price plunges 23pp despite $6K whale inflows
Whale buying diverged from a sharp 23.0 percentage point drop in YES price to 50.5%, signaling conflicting signals in the Ethereum price market.
Jul 16