Breaking
Polymarket Core CPI July YES Price Drops 24pp Despite Whale Selling
The market pricing for July's 0.2% Core CPI MoM fell from 64.5% to 40.5%, diverging from whale flow that moved against the price shift.
Jul 15
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Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,182 stories.
Breaking
Fed rate hike odds plunge 28.1pp despite $880K whale buys on Polymarket
Whale buying diverged from sharp price drop in Fed July 2026 rate hike market, signaling conflicting signals.
Jul 15
Breaking
Sabrina Carpenter World Cup halftime YES price drops 44pp despite $3K whale buying
Whales bought $3K in YES contracts even as Polymarket price fell from 72.0% to 28.1% in 24 hours, diverging from on-chain flow.
Jul 15
Breaking
Odds for 30 ships transiting Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026 drop 61.3 pp despite $41K whale buys
Whale buying diverges sharply from a 61.3 percentage point fall in YES price, signaling conflicting signals in the market.
Jul 15
Breaking
Iran military action market surges 30.5pp as whales back YES contracts
Whale buying and price jumps aligned as Polymarket’s Iran Gulf State conflict odds rose sharply.
Jul 15
Breaking
US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026? YES price drops 17pp amid whale selling
Polymarket’s “US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?” market saw a sharp 17.0 percentage point decline in YES price, diverging from whale flow.
Jul 15
Breaking
Sabrina Carpenter World Cup Halftime Show Odds Drop 37.6 Points Despite Whale Buying
The YES contract for Sabrina Carpenter performing at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show fell sharply from 66.5% to 28.9%, while whales increased their net YES exposure by $3K.
Jul 15
Breaking
“Will Russia capture Pokrovka by July 31?” YES price jumps 89.9 pp to 97.7% with whale backing
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 24-hour surge in the market’s odds, pushing the YES price from 7.8% to near certainty.
Jul 15
Breaking
“Over $40M committed to the Credible public sale?” odds drop 19pp to 16.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity diverged sharply from price as the market’s chance of $40M public sale commitment fell despite minimal YES-side bets.
Jul 15
Breaking
Iran military action odds surge 37.5pp to 93.5% as whales back YES on Polymarket
Whales supported a sharp jump in the probability of Iranian military action against a Gulf State, pushing the YES contract from 56.0% to 93.5% in 24 hours.
Jul 15