Breaking
Anthropic Claude Fable 5 extension odds jump 22pp to 82.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with price surge as market sharply repriced likelihood of extension by July 19.
Jul 17
#%scrypto
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 50 stories.
Breaking
Moonshot AI Model Market Jumps 31.9pp to 51.5% on Whale Buying
Whale net inflows of $6K supported a sharp rise in odds for Moonshot leading Chinese AI by July 2026.
Jul 17
Breaking
“Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in July?” YES odds drop 20pp despite $14K whale net buy
Ethereum price target odds on Polymarket slid sharply even as whales increased their YES positions by $14K.
Jul 17
Breaking
YES price jumps 22pp to 58.5% on Claude Opus release timing market
Whale activity aligns with a sharp 22pp rise in optimism for Claude Opus model release by July 22, 2026
Jul 17
Breaking
“Theo FDV above $100M one day after launch?” YES price jumps 18pp to 79.5%
Whales supported the sharp 18.0 percentage point rise in YES price with $2K net inflow, aligning with the market rally.
Jul 17
PMX Index
PMX Politics and Crypto Activity Reach 44-Day Highs as Composite Dips to 33.1
Polydata’s exclusive PMX index shows a sharply risk-off mood overall amid uneven sub-index signals highlighting political and crypto market surges.
Jul 16
Breaking
Claude Opus Release Odds Drop 23pp Despite Whale Buying
Whale flow diverged from price as the market slashed the chance of a July 22, 2026 release for the next Claude Opus model.
Jul 16
Breaking
“Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 22, 2026?” YES price drops 47.5pp to 18.5%
Price plunge on Claude Opus release market contrasts with whale flow, signaling market skepticism amid low volume
Jul 16
Breaking
Claude Opus July 22, 2026 Release Odds Drop 22pp Amid Divergent Whale Flow
Polymarket’s ‘Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 22, 2026?’ market saw a sharp odds decline despite whale activity showing no support for the price move.
Jul 16
Breaking
Claude Opus July 2026 Release Odds Drop 18.5pp Despite Whale Buying
The contract’s YES price fell from 93.0% to 74.5% over 24 hours while whales increased their YES bets, signaling a split between price direction and large trader flow.
Jul 16