The probability that SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 will launch by July 23 plunged 50.0 percentage points in the past 24 hours, sliding from 86.5% to 36.5% on Polymarket. This dramatic drop in the YES contract price reflects a swift reassessment by traders about the likelihood of the event occurring on schedule.
Despite this steep decline in market-implied odds, whale trading activity diverged from the price movement, showing no significant net inflow into YES contracts. This divergence between large traders’ flows and the sharp sell-off in the contract price suggests that while retail or smaller traders pushed prices lower, whales did not follow suit by reducing their YES exposure in tandem.
The total 24-hour volume for this market reached $12K, indicating moderate trading interest amid the volatility.
This setup points to uncertainty about the Starship launch timeline as perceived by different market participants. The price drop signals growing skepticism or new information weighing on the launch probability, while whale behavior suggests some remain confident or are hedging differently. Together, these factors underscore a contested outlook on the technical and operational feasibility of the July 23 launch date.
| Market | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 23? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2954495 |
| 24h price change | +50.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 36.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 86.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $12K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-20. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.