The market for “Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 20?” saw a dramatic reversal in the past 24 hours, with the YES price plunging 38.0 percentage points from an estimated 49.5% to just 11.5% as of July 19. This sharp decline signals a significant shift in trader sentiment about the likelihood of the launch happening on time.
Interestingly, whale flow diverged from the price action during this period. While the YES contract’s price dropped heavily, whales did not increase their net position in YES, indicating that large traders were not aligned with the tape’s bearish repricing. The 24-hour volume on Polymarket for this contract was relatively modest at $7K, suggesting that the price move was driven more by retail or smaller participants rather than heavy whale buying or selling.
The combined picture suggests uncertainty or new information causing a reassessment, but with whales not following the sharp sell-off, the market’s direction remains unsettled.
| Market | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 20? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2954494 |
| 24h price change | +38.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 11.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 49.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $7K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-19. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.