The probability that SpaceX’s Starship Flight Test 13 will launch by July 20 plunged 24.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours on Polymarket, declining from 46.5% to 22.0%. This sharp repricing reflects a significant shift in market sentiment just one day before the deadline.
Contrary to the price move, whale trading activity diverged from the downward price trend. Large traders increased their net exposure to YES contracts, implying they were betting on the launch despite the market’s growing doubts. Polymarket’s 24-hour volume on this question was $7K, indicating moderate liquidity around the event.
This divergence between whale flow and price suggests a split in conviction: while the broader market sharply lowered the odds of a timely launch, whales appear to hold a more optimistic view.
Overall, the combination of a steep decline in price with whale buying highlights uncertainty and mixed expectations surrounding the Starship Flight Test 13 launch. Market participants face contrasting signals in the final hours before the July 20 cutoff.
| Market | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 20? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2954494 |
| 24h price change | +24.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 22.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 46.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $7K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-19. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.