The market question “Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?” experienced a sharp reversal in implied probability, with the YES contract price plunging 57.9 percentage points over the past 24 hours—from 95.1% to 37.2% on Polymarket Breaking. This dramatic repricing signals a significant shift in market sentiment on the likelihood of this outcome.
Despite the steep decline in price, whale activity diverged notably from the tape: large traders collectively bought $64K worth of YES contracts and sold $29K, resulting in a net flow of $34K into YES. This divergence between whale flow and price movement suggests that while overall market demand for YES contracts dropped, significant whale interest remained or even increased on the outcome.
Polymarket’s total 24-hour volume for this market was $46K, with a lifetime volume of $106K and participation from 181 unique traders, including 79 unique whales. The current Polymarket Breaking YES price of 37.2% contrasts sharply with the Polydata on-chain mid price of 96.4%, indicating potential discrepancies in price feeds or market segments.
This divergence underscores the importance of monitoring both price action and whale flow to fully understand market positioning and sentiment around this geopolitical shipping event.
| Market | Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2820499 |
| 24h price change | +57.9 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 37.2% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 95.1% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 96.4% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $34K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $64K / $29K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 79 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $46K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 181 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-14. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.