The YES contract on the market “Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?” dropped 57.5 percentage points in the last 24 hours, falling from an estimated 94.8% to 37.4%.
Despite this sharp decline in price, whale activity moved in the opposite direction: there was a net inflow of $37K into YES positions, with $69K in whale buy volume against $32K in sell volume. This divergence between whale flow and price action is notable, as typically large traders and price moves tend to align. The 24-hour Polymarket volume for this market was $52K, contributing to a lifetime volume of $115K with 207 unique traders participating overall.
Additionally, the Polydata on-chain mid-price for YES stands at 96.4%, which contrasts markedly with the Polymarket Breaking price of 37.4%, underscoring a significant discrepancy between on-chain data and the Polymarket price feed.
The conflicting signals—falling market odds paired with whale buying—suggest uncertainty or differing interpretations among large traders about the likelihood of 30 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by the deadline.
| Market | Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2820499 |
| 24h price change | +57.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 37.4% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 94.8% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 96.4% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $37K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $69K / $32K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 96 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $52K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 207 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-15. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.