The market “Over $35M committed to the Credible public sale?” saw its YES price fall sharply by 16.0 percentage points in the past 24 hours, dropping from approximately 39.5% to 23.5% as of July 16, 2026. This notable repricing occurred alongside $20K in Polymarket volume over the same period.
Despite the sharp decline in the YES contract price, whale activity diverged from this trend, indicating that large traders did not increase their net exposure to YES positions. This divergence between price movement and whale flow suggests that the price drop was not driven or confirmed by the largest market participants.
The disconnect between whale flow and the price tape highlights uncertainty or a lack of consensus among major traders about the likelihood of over $35 million being committed to Credible’s public sale. The sizable 16.0 pp decline in YES price reflects a market-wide reassessment of the event, but the absence of whale buying pressure tempers the strength of this sentiment.
This suggests that the market is still settling on the true probability of the Credible public sale exceeding $35 million in commitments.
| Market | Over $35M committed to the Credible public sale? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2845813 |
| 24h price change | +16.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 23.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 39.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $20K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-16. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.