The Polymarket question “Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale?” saw its YES contract price surge by 44.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours, climbing from 38.5% to 83.0% as of July 13, 2026. This dramatic repricing reflects a strong shift in market sentiment about the likelihood of the public sale surpassing $30 million in commitments.
Whale activity tracked closely with the price movement. Net whale flow into YES totaled $13K, with $25K in buy volume against $12K in sell volume across 49 unique whales. This alignment between large trader behavior and the price action underscores a coordinated push or shared conviction among significant participants.
Despite the Polymarket YES price hitting 83.0%, Polydata’s on-chain mid-price overview remained at 42.5%, highlighting a notable divergence between the market price and on-chain data signals. The overall 24-hour trading volume on Polymarket for this contract was $24K, contributing to a lifetime volume of $40K with 87 unique traders having participated.
The combined surge in price and whale inflows signals a strong recalibration of expectations around the Credible public sale’s funding milestone.
| Market | Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2845812 |
| 24h price change | +44.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 83.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 38.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 42.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $13K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $25K / $12K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 49 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $24K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 87 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-13. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.