Breaking

“Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale?” YES jumps 44.5 pp to 83.0% in 24h

Whale activity aligned with the sharp rally, pushing the market from 38.5% to 83.0% YES probability.

The Polymarket question “Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale?” saw its YES contract price surge by 44.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours, climbing from 38.5% to 83.0% as of July 13, 2026. This dramatic repricing reflects a strong shift in market sentiment about the likelihood of the public sale surpassing $30 million in commitments.

Whale activity tracked closely with the price movement. Net whale flow into YES totaled $13K, with $25K in buy volume against $12K in sell volume across 49 unique whales. This alignment between large trader behavior and the price action underscores a coordinated push or shared conviction among significant participants.

Despite the Polymarket YES price hitting 83.0%, Polydata’s on-chain mid-price overview remained at 42.5%, highlighting a notable divergence between the market price and on-chain data signals. The overall 24-hour trading volume on Polymarket for this contract was $24K, contributing to a lifetime volume of $40K with 87 unique traders having participated.

The combined surge in price and whale inflows signals a strong recalibration of expectations around the Credible public sale’s funding milestone.

Market Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale?
Market ID 2845812
24h price change +44.5 pp
YES now (PM Breaking) 83.0%
YES ~24h ago (est.) 38.5%
YES (Polydata overview) 42.5%
Whale net flow (24h) $13K
Whale buy / sell (24h) $25K / $12K
Unique whales (24h) 49
Volume 24h (PM) $24K
Unique traders (Polydata) 87

Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-13. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.

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