The probability that NVIDIA will be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31 rose sharply by 20.5 percentage points in the last 24 hours, climbing from 15.5% to 36.0% on Polymarket. This significant repricing was confirmed by whale activity, with a net inflow of $5K into YES contracts.
Whales accounted for $28K in buy volume and $23K in sell volume over the same period, across 42 unique whale accounts. Total 24-hour volume on Polymarket for this contract was $27K, contributing to a lifetime market volume of $121K and involving 208 unique traders.
The alignment between whale flow and price movement suggests that large traders are backing the recent surge in optimism about NVIDIA’s market cap position. The combination of a 20.5pp rise in YES price and positive whale net flow signals a notable shift in market sentiment and conviction regarding NVIDIA’s ranking.
This repricing and whale support mark a clear market response to evolving expectations for NVIDIA’s valuation by the end of July, reflecting both retail and institutional interest converging on the same outcome.
| Market | Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2674076 |
| 24h price change | +20.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 36.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 15.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 36.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $5K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $28K / $23K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 42 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $27K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 208 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-17. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.