The probability that NVIDIA will be the second-largest company by market cap on July 31 rose sharply by 25.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours, climbing from 8.5% to 34.0% on Polymarket. This significant repricing reflects a swift shift in market sentiment toward this outcome.
Whale activity aligned with this price move, contributing a net flow of $4K into YES contracts. Among 39 unique whales trading within the last day, total buy volume reached $24K while sell volume was $20K, indicating that the largest traders were generally increasing their exposure to this scenario. The overall 24-hour volume on the market was $23K, showing that whale buys surpassed the total market volume, highlighting their outsized influence.
Since inception, the market has seen $112K in lifetime volume with 180 unique traders participating, suggesting that this recent surge is a notable acceleration in interest and conviction. The alignment of whale flow with the sharp 25.5 pp price increase signals consensus among top traders and other participants that NVIDIA’s rise to the second spot in market cap rankings is gaining credibility.
This combined price and whale flow momentum points to a growing confidence in NVIDIA’s market position by the end of July, reflected in a substantial revaluation of the odds.
| Market | Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2674076 |
| 24h price change | +25.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 34.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 8.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 34.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $4K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $24K / $20K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 39 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $23K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 180 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-17. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.