The probability that NVIDIA will be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31 dropped sharply by 20.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours, falling from 68.0% to 48.0% on Polymarket. This sizable decline in the YES contract price contrasts with whale trading behavior, which diverged from the downward price move.
In the same period, whales collectively bought $71K worth of YES contracts and sold $34K, resulting in a net flow of $36K into YES. The total Polymarket volume for this market in the last 24 hours was $73K, indicating that whales accounted for nearly all of the trading activity. With 168 unique whale traders active, the flow pattern signals strong whale interest despite the market’s falling implied probability.
The lifetime volume of this market stands at $1.42M with 3,168 unique traders participating overall, highlighting its liquidity and trader engagement.
This combination of a steep price drop alongside whale buying pressure points to a complex market dynamic where large participants are not following the price trend, potentially indicating disagreement on NVIDIA’s near-term market cap trajectory.
| Market | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2673621 |
| 24h price change | +20.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 48.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 68.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 48.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $36K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $71K / $34K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 168 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $73K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 3,168 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-18. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.