The market on whether Kylian Mbappe will score 10 or more goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup surged 79.3 percentage points in the past 24 hours, rising from 20.5% to 99.9% on Polymarket. This dramatic repricing reflects a near-consensus in favor of the outcome.
Whale activity tracked closely with the price move. Over the same period, 33 unique whales contributed a net $7K into YES contracts, with $11K in whale buy volume against $3K in sell volume. The total 24-hour volume on the market was $11K, consistent with the whale buy volume, indicating that large traders largely drove the surge.
Since inception, the market has accumulated $70K in lifetime volume from 165 unique traders, showing sustained interest. The alignment of whale flow and price suggests that informed participants are increasingly confident in Mbappe hitting the 10+ goals threshold.
This combined price and flow pattern signals a strong market conviction behind Mbappe’s goal-scoring prospects in the 2026 World Cup, crystallizing near certainty on Polymarket as of July 19, 2026.
| Market | Will Kylian Mbappe score 10+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2763246 |
| 24h price change | +79.3 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 99.9% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 20.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 99.9% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $7K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $11K / $3K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 33 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $11K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 165 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-19. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.