The probability that Kareem Allam will win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election dropped sharply by 34.5 percentage points on Polymarket over the past 24 hours, falling from 51.5% to 17.0%.
Despite this steep decline in the YES contract price, whale activity diverged from the price movement. Over the same period, 69 unique whales collectively bought $15K and sold $8K in YES contracts, resulting in a net inflow of $6K into YES positions. This contrasts with the market’s sharp downward revaluation of Allam’s chances.
The total 24-hour volume on this market was $16K, a substantial portion of the lifetime market volume of $55K, indicating heightened trading interest. The market has seen participation from 291 unique traders over its lifetime.
The divergence between whale net flow and the price suggests conflicting interpretations among large traders and the broader market. While the general market sharply reduced Allam’s implied probability of winning, whales increased their exposure to YES contracts.
Overall, the combination of a steep price drop and contrary whale flow points to a complex market dynamic, with large traders not fully aligning with the market’s recent repricing of Allam’s electoral chances.
| Market | Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 1822538 |
| 24h price change | +34.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 17.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 51.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 16.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $6K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $15K / $8K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 69 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $16K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 291 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-20. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.