The probability that Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12 rose sharply by 93.3 percentage points over the past 24 hours, jumping from an estimated 2.3% to 95.7% on Polymarket.
This dramatic repricing was accompanied by aligned whale activity, with 77 unique whales contributing to a net $11K inflow into YES contracts. Whale buy volume reached $18K, nearly triple the $7K in sell volume, underscoring strong demand from large traders.
Overall market volume for this question in the last 24 hours was $21K, close to the total lifetime market volume of $28K, indicating intense recent interest. A total of 164 unique traders have participated in the market so far.
The synchronization of whale buying and the price surge signals high conviction among large participants that the event will occur. The rapid increase in odds combined with whale flow suggests the market has swiftly incorporated new information or sentiment pointing to a successful Iranian targeting of shipping on July 12.
| Market | Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2835635 |
| 24h price change | +93.3 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 95.7% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 2.3% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $11K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $18K / $7K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 77 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $21K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 164 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.