The market on whether the next GPT model released by OpenAI will debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026, surged 18.5 percentage points in the past 24 hours, rising from 51.5% to 70.0% on Polymarket. This sizable repricing reflects increased confidence in the model’s performance ahead.
Whale activity supported the price move, with net inflows of $3K into YES contracts and total whale buy volume hitting $6K compared to $3K in sells, indicating a clear preference for the higher probability outcome. Forty unique whales participated in trades over the day, aligning their flow with the sharp rise in odds. Meanwhile, total 24-hour market volume stood at $6K, a significant portion of the market’s $31K lifetime volume, showing active engagement from both whales and retail traders, of whom 152 have participated over the market’s life.
Notably, there remains a gap between Polymarket’s YES price at 70.0% and Polydata’s on-chain mid-price of 53.0%, signaling some divergence in data sources or market segments. Still, the combined price jump and whale support suggest a strong shift in sentiment toward the likelihood that the upcoming GPT model will achieve the performance threshold by the end of 2026.
| Market | Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2659165 |
| 24h price change | +18.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 70.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 51.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 53.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $3K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $6K / $3K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 40 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $6K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 152 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-10. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.