The market on whether the next Claude Opus model will be released by July 24, 2026, saw a significant shift as the YES contract price jumped 21.0 percentage points over 24 hours, climbing from an estimated 56.5% to 77.5%. This sharp repricing signals increased confidence among traders that the release will occur within the specified timeframe.
Whale activity supported this price move, with a net inflow of $1K into YES contracts over the same period. Whale buy volume totaled $2K while sell volume was $1K, distributed among 29 unique whales. This alignment between whale flow and price action suggests that larger traders are backing the market’s bullish shift, reinforcing the market consensus rather than contradicting it.
The 24-hour trading volume on Polymarket reached $9K, contributing to a lifetime market volume of $19K across 98 unique traders. The combination of rising prices, positive whale flow, and robust trading activity indicates growing market conviction in the likelihood of the Claude Opus model release by the July 24, 2026 deadline.
This coordinated move between price and whale flow highlights a clear directional sentiment emerging in the market, reflecting a stronger collective belief in the event’s occurrence within the stipulated timeframe.
| Market | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2925816 |
| 24h price change | +21.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 77.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 56.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 77.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $1K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $2K / $1K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 29 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $9K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 98 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-18. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.