The market for “Will Anthropic remove paid plan access for Fable 5 by July 19, 2026?” saw a dramatic shift in the past 24 hours, with the YES contract price plunging from 36.5% to 1.0%, a 35.5 percentage point drop. This sharp repricing indicates a strong market reassessment of the likelihood that Anthropic will remove paid plan access.
Despite this steep decline in YES price, whale trading activity diverged from the price move, as net whale flow did not support the selloff in YES contracts. This divergence suggests that large traders maintained some exposure to the YES side even as the broader market sharply lowered the probability of the event.
Polymarket recorded $12K in volume on this contract over the last 24 hours, reflecting active participation amid the price adjustment. The conflicting signals between price action and whale flow highlight uncertainty or differing interpretations among market participants about Anthropic’s future plans for Fable 5.
The combined price and flow dynamics underscore a nuanced market view rather than a straightforward consensus.
| Market | Will Anthropic remove paid plan access for Fable 5 by July 19, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2929730 |
| 24h price change | +35.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 1.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 36.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $12K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-18. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.