The market on whether the next Claude Opus model will be released by July 22, 2026, saw its YES contract price plunge 31.5 percentage points over the last 24 hours, falling from 50.5% to 19.0% on Polymarket.
This steep drop in implied probability occurred despite whale activity diverging from the price movement, as large traders did not increase net bets on YES in line with the declining odds. Total 24-hour trading volume registered $18K, indicating moderate market engagement during this shift.
The divergence between whale flow and the price move suggests that while the general market sentiment turned sharply against the release happening by the specified date, significant bettors have not aligned with this view.
Overall, the combined picture of a sharp decline in the YES contract price alongside a lack of confirming whale bets points to a market recalibrating its expectations, with some large traders potentially holding countervailing positions amid the broader sell-off.
| Market | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 22, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2934926 |
| 24h price change | +31.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 19.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 50.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $18K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-20. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.