On Polymarket’s “Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?” market, wallet @blkmont executed a $1.01M buy, one of the largest single trades in the past 24 hours. This bet stands out because the market-implied probability for Switzerland winning is just 2.1%, marking the wager as a bet against the consensus and on a longshot outcome.
@blkmont has been active on this specific market today, also purchasing $476K and $226K and selling $299K in other large trades, totaling $2.38M across six sizable moves. This wallet is notable for its strong track record, with 76.3% accuracy across 245 resolved positions and a Brier score of 0.1624, reflecting a history of well-informed bets. Its lifetime volume on Polymarket reaches $33.96M over 23,176 trades in 359 markets.
The broader whale activity on the 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner market supports this direction, with $12.01M bought versus $6.64M sold by 481 unique whales in the past 24 hours. The market itself is part of a major event spanning 50 markets, with $3.77B in lifetime volume and participation from 139,532 traders. The single largest trader in this event accounts for 6.0% of its volume. The market closes in 13 days.
This large, contrarian bet by a proven trader pushes against the market consensus and joins a wider pattern of whale buying on this market. It highlights a significant conviction in a low-probability outcome within a highly liquid and competitive event that has already seen extreme estimated PnL swings, with the biggest winner up $47.88M and the biggest loser down $213.07M.
| Direction | BUY |
|---|---|
| Market | Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? |
| Event | 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner |
| Wallet | @blkmont · 0xfd978deb906c7b6b89a6550d2028e261ee290ec5 |
| Amount | $1.01M |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/moves · snapshot 2026-07-07T16:20:34Z. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.