Breaking
Israel-Iran ceasefire odds drop 25pp to 36.5% despite whale buying
Whale flow diverged from price as Polymarket’s “Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?” market sharply repriced lower on July 19.
Jul 19
Archive
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,341 stories.
Breaking
England’s 3rd Place Odds Surge 64.5 Points to 100% on Polymarket
Whales aligned with the sharp price move, adding $49K net into YES contracts as the market fully repriced England’s World Cup finish.
Jul 19
Breaking
Mbappe Top Scorer Odds Surge 52pp to 93.5% Backed by $535K Whale Buy-In
Whale activity aligned with a sharp jump in Mbappe top goalscorer odds on Polymarket, signaling strong conviction.
Jul 19
Breaking
“Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 7?” YES jumps 15.0 pp to 50.5%
Whale activity of $4K net inflow supported a sharp 15.0 pp rise in this Polymarket contract's YES price over 24 hours.
Jul 19
Breaking
England 4th Place Odds Collapse 65.5pp to 0.05% Amid Divergent Whale Flow
Polymarket's World Cup contract on England finishing 4th plunged sharply while whale activity did not support the move, signaling a major shift in market sentiment.
Jul 19
Breaking
Iran Gulf State military action odds drop 28.5pp despite $3K whale buying
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?” market saw a sharp 28.5 percentage point decline in YES price, while whales increased exposure by $3K, signaling a divergence between price and whale flow.
Jul 19
Breaking
Bitcoin $62,500 July dip odds fall 16.2 pp as whale flow diverges
Polymarket's 'Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in July?' market saw a sharp 16.2 percentage point drop in YES price despite $13K whale buying net flow moving opposite the price trend.
Jul 19
Daily
Polymarket handles $44.65M in 24 hours with 2.08M trades across 514K markets
Daily volume stayed just below recent averages as FIFA World Cup 2026 markets dominate open interest
Jul 19
Breaking
Bitcoin $65,000 July Contract Jumps 15pp to 95.5% on Aligned Whale Activity
Whale trading and price action moved in sync as Polymarket’s Bitcoin July contract surged from 80.5% to 95.5%.
Jul 18
Breaking
Shakira World Cup Halftime Show Song Odds Jump 17.5pp to 86% on Polymarket
Whale activity and price movement aligned as the market sharply repriced Dai Dai as likely opener for 2026 final show.
Jul 18