Breaking
Iran shipping attack odds soar 41.5 points to 97.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity moved in step with a rapid jump in market confidence over a day amid $9K volume.
Jul 14
Archive
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,341 stories.
Breaking
France’s chance to top 2026 World Cup goals drops 42.9pp despite $11K whale buys
Whales increased YES-side bets by $11K even as Polymarket’s price for France scoring most goals plunged from 54.0% to 11.1%.
Jul 14
Breaking
Bitcoin $65K July YES contract jumps 41.8pp as whales add $69K
Whales and overall trading moved in sync to push the market from 53.5% to 95.2% in 24 hours.
Jul 14
Breaking
YES price on Hormuz transit plunges 46.2pp while whales buy $36K into the market
Polymarket’s YES price on 30 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz drops from 92.7% to 46.5%, diverging sharply from whale buying activity.
Jul 14
Breaking
Argentina’s odds to score most goals at 2026 World Cup jump 44.9pp to 84.7%
Whale activity supported the sharp price rise, with $2K net bought into YES contracts amid $9K total volume.
Jul 14
Breaking
Spain Semifinal Elimination Odds Collapse 59.5pp to 0.05% on Polymarket
Whale buying of $38K into YES contrasts sharply with a near-total price drop, signaling a disconnect in the market.
Jul 14
Breaking
“Will Ethereum reach $1,900 in July?” YES price jumps 45.5 pp to 89.5% on Polymarket
Whales contributed $16K net buying as the contract’s odds surged sharply, confirming the price move.
Jul 14
Breaking
France’s chances to top 2026 World Cup goals plunge 47pp to 7.0% despite $11K whale buys
Polymarket YES price for France scoring most goals drops sharply while whale flow contradicts the sell-off.
Jul 14
Whales
$4.81M Net Whale Flow into YES on France Winning 2026 World Cup Against 0.05% Market Price
Whales have bought $11.92M and sold $2.97M on France's 2026 World Cup win market, diverging sharply from the 0.05% market-implied probability.
Jul 14
Breaking
YES price plunges 50.8pp to 42.0% on Strait of Hormuz transit market amid whale-flow divergence
Despite whales adding $36K net into YES, Polymarket’s price for 30 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz drops sharply, signaling conflicting signals on market outlook.
Jul 14