Breaking
Fed Rate Pause Odds Jump 32pp to 93.5% on $2.27M Whale Buying
Whales drove a $2.27M net inflow as the market sharply repriced the chance of no Fed rate change after July 2026 meeting.
Jul 15
Archive
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,341 stories.
Breaking
Google Gemini Pro July 31, 2026 Release Odds Drop 54pp to 19.8% Despite $4K Whale Bets
Polymarket’s price for the Google Gemini Pro release contract plunged sharply while whale flow diverged, signaling conflicting market signals.
Jul 15
Breaking
Polymarket YES Price on US Hormuz Fees Drops 25pp Despite Whale Flow
The market's YES contract for US charging Hormuz fees by end-2026 fell sharply while whale bets diverged from the price move.
Jul 15
Breaking
Fed rate pause odds jump 30pp to 92.5% as whales back no-change bet with $2.27M
The market for no Fed rate change after July 2026 surged sharply, with whale activity reinforcing the rally amid $3M traded in 24 hours.
Jul 15
Breaking
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? YES odds plunge 27.1 pp despite $90K whale inflow
Whale buying of $90K in YES contracts contrasts with a sharp 27.1 percentage point drop in the market price to 6.9%.
Jul 15
Breaking
Bitcoin $60K July Dip Odds Drop 28pp as Whale Flow Diverges
Whales bought $2K into YES contracts even as market price plunged from 58.5% to 30.5% in 24 hours.
Jul 15
Breaking
UK Foreign Secretary market YES odds plunge 28.5pp as whale flow diverges
Despite a sharp 28.5 percentage point drop in YES price, whale activity pushed $4K into YES, signaling conflicting signals in the UK Foreign Secretary market.
Jul 15
Breaking
Iran military action odds jump 29pp to 94% as whales buy $6K in sync
Polymarket’s market on July 15 Gulf conflict sees sharp price lift matched by whale buying, signaling strong alignment between price and flow.
Jul 15
Breaking
“Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13?” YES price drops 38.6 pp amid whale flow divergence
YES contract for Iran shipping target falls from 46.9% to 8.2% despite $4K whale buys, signaling mixed market signals
Jul 15
Breaking
Odds for Russia capturing Pokrovka by July 31 jump 89.8pp to 97.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with a dramatic price surge, pushing market confidence sharply higher in a single day.
Jul 15