The market on whether Anthropic will remove paid plan access for Fable 5 by July 19, 2026, saw a dramatic reversal in sentiment over the past 24 hours, with the YES contract price dropping 20.5 percentage points from 21.5% to 1.0%. This steep decline signals a sharp loss of confidence among traders in the likelihood of the event occurring.
Notably, this price move diverged from whale activity on Polymarket, where large traders continued to net buy YES contracts despite the plummeting price. The flow divergence suggests that while the broader market has turned decisively against the event, whales maintain a contradictory stance, potentially anticipating a different outcome or seeking value at depressed prices.
Trading volume for the question reached $10K in the last 24 hours, reflecting moderate engagement as the price adjusted sharply. The conflicting signals from price and whale flow highlight a market under tension, with retail sentiment and large traders at odds.
This divergence between whale flow and price action underscores the complexity of market dynamics on Polymarket. The sharp price drop alongside whale accumulation suggests differing interpretations of information or strategic positioning ahead of the July 19, 2026 deadline.
Overall, the combined price and flow data indicate a contested outlook on Anthropic’s plans for Fable 5 paid access, with the market sharply discounting the event but whales still betting on its occurrence.
| Market | Will Anthropic remove paid plan access for Fable 5 by July 19, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2929730 |
| 24h price change | +20.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 1.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 21.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $10K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-18. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.