The probability that the United States will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026, jumped 30.0 percentage points in the last 24 hours on Polymarket, rising from 29.5% to 59.5%. This sharp increase reflects a significant shift in market sentiment on this geopolitical event.
Notably, whale activity moved in alignment with the price change, confirming the tape’s direction. Large traders contributed net buying pressure into the YES contract, reinforcing the upward move. Despite the relatively modest 24-hour volume of $6K, the coordinated price and flow movement indicates increased conviction behind this shift.
This combined surge in price and whale participation signals growing market confidence that the U.S. will deploy warships through this critical maritime route by the specified date. The alignment between whale flow and price action underscores broad agreement among influential traders about the event’s likelihood, suggesting that this repricing is grounded in evolving information or sentiment rather than speculative noise.
| Market | Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2761559 |
| 24h price change | +30.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 59.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 29.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $6K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.