The YES price on the Polymarket contract “Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?” dropped dramatically by 52.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours, falling from an estimated 69.0% to 16.5% as of July 12, 2026.
This steep decline occurred alongside $15K in 24-hour trading volume but was marked by a notable divergence between price movement and whale behavior. Despite the YES price collapsing, whale flow did not align with this shift, indicating that large traders were not reinforcing the market’s sudden bearish adjustment.
The divergence between whale flow and price suggests that while retail or smaller traders rapidly sold off YES contracts, whales either remained neutral or potentially positioned differently, creating a tension in the market’s interpretation of the likelihood of 40 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date.
This dynamic signals uncertainty in the contract’s outlook, with the price reflecting a sharp drop in confidence but whale activity not confirming that sentiment.
| Market | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2853082 |
| 24h price change | +52.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 16.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 69.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $15K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.