The market question “Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?” experienced a significant repricing on July 12, with the YES contract price falling 33.0 percentage points from 69.5% to 36.5% over 24 hours. This sharp decline in implied probability reflects a major shift in market sentiment on this maritime transit event.
Despite the steep drop in the YES price, whale activity diverged from the price trend, indicating a notable disconnect between large-volume traders and the broader market tape.
The 24-hour trading volume for this market stood at $15K, indicating moderate liquidity and trader interest around this event. The divergence between whale flow and price movement highlights the complexity of market dynamics, where large traders’ bets do not always confirm short-term price shifts.
This combination of a sharp 33pp drop in YES price alongside opposing whale flow points to uncertainty or conflicting views among market participants regarding the likelihood of 40 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by the set date.
| Market | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2853082 |
| 24h price change | +33.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 36.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 69.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $15K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.