The market “Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?” saw its YES contract price rise sharply by 19.5 percentage points in the past 24 hours, increasing from an estimated 21.5% to 41.0% on Polymarket Breaking feed as of July 12, 2026. This significant repricing was accompanied by strong whale activity that aligned with the price move.
Whales contributed a net inflow of $95K into YES contracts, with $184K in buy volume against $89K in sell volume, across 220 unique whale traders. The total 24-hour volume on Polymarket for this market was $180K, indicating that whales accounted for a substantial portion of trading activity during the move. Over the lifetime of the market, $705K has traded among 777 unique traders.
Notably, the Polymarket Breaking YES price at 41.0% contrasts with the Polydata on-chain mid-price of 22.5%, suggesting a divergence between the live market feed and on-chain data snapshots. Despite this, whale flow and price movements were in agreement, reinforcing the shift in market sentiment.
This combined flow and price action signals increased conviction among large traders that a US blockade on Iran by the deadline is becoming more likely, reflecting a meaningful update in the market’s assessment of geopolitical risk within a single day.
| Market | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2643405 |
| 24h price change | +19.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 41.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 21.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 22.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $95K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $184K / $89K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 220 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $180K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 777 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.