The probability that Iran will commit not to attack ships in the Strait of Hormuz by Sunday has sharply declined on Polymarket, with the YES contract price tumbling 16.7 percentage points over the past 24 hours, from 18.0% down to 1.4%. This move reflects a significant repricing of the market’s expectations.
Despite the steep drop in the YES price, whale activity diverged from the price trend. Large traders increased their net exposure to the YES contract, signaling a bet against the prevailing market sentiment reflected in the price. This divergence between whale flow and price action suggests a notable disagreement between retail and large-volume participants.
Trading volume over the last 24 hours reached $185K, underscoring active engagement in this geopolitical event market.
Overall, the sharp price drop accompanied by opposing whale flow highlights uncertainty and conflicting views on Iran’s intentions regarding maritime security in the strategically critical Hormuz Strait. This tension between price action and whale behavior is a key signal for monitoring shifts in this contract’s outlook.
| Market | Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2874930 |
| 24h price change | +16.7 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 1.4% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 18.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $185K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.