The market question “Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?” saw its YES contract price fall 20.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours, dropping from an estimated 68.5% to 48.5% as of July 12, 2026.
This sharp repricing contrasts with whale trading activity, which diverged from the price trend. While the YES price declined significantly, whale flow did not align with this drop, indicating that large traders were not selling into the price weakness. The 24-hour volume on Polymarket for this contract was $6K, reflecting moderate trading interest around the event.
The divergence between the price decline and whale behavior suggests a complex dynamic in market sentiment. Retail or smaller traders appear to be driving the price down, while whales maintain or increase their exposure to YES contracts.
Overall, the combined signals of a 20.0 pp price drop and whale flow divergence imply uncertainty and a potential disconnect between retail sentiment and large trader convictions on this geopolitical shipping milestone.
| Market | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2853082 |
| 24h price change | +20.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 48.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 68.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $6K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.