The market for whether the next Grok model released by xAI will debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026, saw its YES price collapse by 85.0 percentage points in 24 hours, falling from around 86.0% to just 1.1% as of July 11.
This dramatic repricing reflects a near-complete loss of confidence in the likelihood of this high-performance debut. However, the whale flow diverged from this price move, indicating that large-volume traders did not follow the steep decline in contract value. This divergence between price and whale activity suggests conflicting signals in the market’s underlying dynamics.
Polymarket recorded $13K in 24-hour volume on this contract, highlighting moderate trading interest despite the sharp price shift. The disconnect between whale flow and the tape means that while retail or smaller traders rapidly adjusted their expectations downward, whales held positions or took contrary stances, potentially awaiting new information or a rebound.
The combined picture of an 85.0 pp drop in YES price alongside opposing whale flow points to unsettled sentiment around xAI’s Grok model capabilities.
| Market | Will the next Grok model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2839994 |
| 24h price change | +85.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 1.1% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 86.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $13K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-11. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.