The Polymarket contract “Kash Patel out by December 31?” saw its YES price climb sharply by 17.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours, rising from an estimated 34.5% to 51.5%. This move pushed the implied probability of Patel’s departure past the halfway mark for the first time since the market opened.
Whale activity aligned with this price surge, as 63 unique whales collectively bought $10K and sold $6K worth of YES contracts, resulting in a $5K net inflow into YES positions. This whale buying pressure reinforced the price action, indicating coordinated conviction behind the shift in market sentiment.
Total Polymarket volume on the contract in the last day was $9K, suggesting that whales accounted for a significant portion of trading activity during this repricing. Over the lifetime of the market, $327K has traded across 922 unique traders, showing steady interest but a notable concentration of influence in the recent move by larger players.
The combined price jump and whale net flow confirm a rapid reappraisal of the likelihood that Kash Patel will be out by the end of 2026. This coordinated increase in both price and whale buying signals growing conviction among major traders that this outcome is increasingly probable.
| Market | Kash Patel out by December 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 1795655 |
| 24h price change | +17.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 51.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 34.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $5K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $10K / $6K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 63 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $9K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 922 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-11. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.