The Polymarket contract “Kash Patel out by December 31?” saw its YES price climb 20.0 percentage points in the last 24 hours, rising from 40.5% to 60.5% according to Polymarket Breaking data on July 11, 2026. This significant repricing reflects a strong shift in market sentiment within a single day.
Whale flow supported this move, with net purchases of $8K into YES contracts over the same period. Whale buy volume totaled $17K, outpacing $9K in sell volume, across 62 unique whale traders. The alignment between whale activity and the rising tape indicates coordinated buying pressure driving the contract higher.
Despite the sharp increase, the Polymarket on-chain mid-price remained notably lower at 41.0%, highlighting a divergence between Polymarket Breaking prices and the broader on-chain market overview. Total 24-hour volume on the market reached $14K, contributing to a lifetime volume of $325K from 911 unique traders.
The combined surge in price and whale buying suggests growing conviction about the likelihood of Kash Patel leaving by the end of the year. This synchronized flow and price action signals a decisive shift in market expectations rather than a speculative blip.
| Market | Kash Patel out by December 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 1795655 |
| 24h price change | +20.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 60.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 40.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 41.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $8K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $17K / $9K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 62 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $14K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 911 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-11. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.