The market asking whether the next Grok model from xAI will debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026, saw a dramatic shift in sentiment over the past 24 hours. The YES contract price tumbled 56.5 percentage points, falling from 68.0% to just 11.6%, signaling a substantial reassessment of the model’s likelihood to reach that benchmark.
Notably, this sharp price decline did not align with whale trading behavior. Despite the plummeting odds, large traders did not follow the market down; instead, whale flow diverged from the price movement, indicating a disconnect between the tape and big-money activity. The total 24-hour volume on Polymarket for this contract was $10K, reflecting moderate trading interest amid the volatility.
This divergence suggests that while retail or smaller traders rapidly downgraded the probability of a high Grok score, whales maintained a steadier position, possibly awaiting further information or viewing the sell-off as premature. The combined picture of a steep price drop paired with whale flow divergence points to a market in flux, with uncertainty persisting about the Grok model’s future performance.
| Market | Will the next Grok model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2839994 |
| 24h price change | +56.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 11.6% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 68.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $10K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-10. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.