The Polymarket contract asking if Moscow air traffic will be suspended by August 31 saw its YES price fall sharply by 16.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours, declining from an estimated 90.5% to 74.0% as of July 10, 2026. This significant repricing reflects a notable shift in market sentiment on the likelihood of the event.
Despite the price drop, whale trading activity diverged from the market’s direction, with large traders not increasing their net exposure to YES contracts. This divergence between whale flow and price movement suggests that while the broader market is lowering its expectations for a suspension of Moscow air traffic by the deadline, major players are not echoing this reduced confidence through their bets.
Trading volume for the contract remained moderate at $26K over the 24-hour window, indicating steady but not extreme liquidity.
This pattern signals a complex market dynamic where the odds are adjusting downward, but informed or large-scale traders are not fully aligned with the prevailing price action. Such a divergence can imply either that whales expect a reversal of the recent price decline or that the market price is reacting to short-term factors not yet influencing major stakeholders.
| Market | Moscow air traffic suspended by August 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2846147 |
| 24h price change | +16.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 74.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 90.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $26K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-10. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.