The market for whether the next Grok model released by xAI will debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026, saw a dramatic shift on Polymarket, with the YES contract price collapsing by 63.5 percentage points in 24 hours. The implied probability dropped from 66.5% to just 3.0%, reflecting a sharp reevaluation of the model’s chances.
Despite this steep decline in price, whale flow diverged from the market move, with large traders increasing their net exposure to YES contracts. This divergence between price action and whale behavior suggests that while retail or smaller traders drove the price down sharply, whales maintained or grew their bets on the outcome.
Trading volume over the past 24 hours remained modest at $9K, indicating limited liquidity but notable interest given the magnitude of the price move. The conflicting signals between price and whale flow highlight a split in market sentiment or information asymmetry regarding the Grok model’s performance prospects.
This combination of a collapsing market price alongside whale accumulation points to a complex market dynamic, where the broader market is discounting the likelihood of a high-scoring debut, but informed or large players are positioning differently. Such divergence can signal uncertainty or a pending reassessment of the model’s expected capabilities in the prediction market.
| Market | Will the next Grok model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2839994 |
| 24h price change | +63.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 3.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 66.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $9K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-10. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.