The Polymarket YES contract for a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026, surged 25.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours, rising from 41.5% to 66.5%. This sharp repricing coincided with substantial whale buying, which saw $48K net flow into YES positions amid $82K in whale buy volume and $34K in sell volume. A total of 139 unique whales participated in the market during this period.
Overall 24-hour trading volume on Polymarket for this question reached $74K, contributing to a lifetime market volume of $448K with 866 unique traders recorded. The alignment of whale flow with price movement indicates coordinated buying pressure rather than a divergence between large traders and market sentiment.
Notably, the Polymarket Breaking YES price of 66.5% contrasts with the Polydata on-chain mid price of 57.0%, suggesting some discrepancy between sources but confirming a strong upward move. The combined picture of a significant 25-point price increase and robust whale activity signals increased conviction around the likelihood of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by the stated deadline.
| Market | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2646850 |
| 24h price change | +25.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 66.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 41.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 57.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $48K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $82K / $34K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 139 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $74K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 866 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-10. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.