The market “Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 15?” saw its YES price soar 60.4 percentage points in the last 24 hours, climbing from 39.5% to an almost certain 99.9% on Polymarket as of July 10, 2026. This dramatic revaluation reflects a significant shift in trader sentiment and information flow.
Trading volume over this period reached $125K, indicating robust market participation amid the surge. Notably, whale activity aligned closely with the price movement, confirming the tape rather than contradicting it. Large investors increased their net exposure to the YES side, reinforcing the upward momentum in the contract’s implied probability.
The alignment of whale flow with the rapid price appreciation suggests that influential market participants are backing the likelihood of declassification by the mid-July deadline. This convergence of price and whale behavior underscores growing confidence in the event’s occurrence, as reflected in the near-certain odds now priced into the market.
The combined evidence from price action and whale flow signals a strong consensus among traders about the outcome, marking a decisive moment in the market’s pricing of this high-profile question.
| Market | Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 15? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2730727 |
| 24h price change | +60.4 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 99.9% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 39.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $125K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-10. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.