The Polymarket prediction market on whether “Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 15?” saw a dramatic 41.0 percentage point increase in its YES price over the past 24 hours, rising from 47.5% to 88.5% as of July 10, 2026. This sharp upward repricing reflects a significant shift in market sentiment toward the event occurring.
Supporting this price move, whale flows aligned with the rising YES price, indicating that large investors increased their net positions on the same side as the tape. This convergence of whale activity and price action suggests that both retail traders and major stakeholders are betting heavily on the declassification happening within the specified timeframe.
Trading volume over this 24-hour window reached $65K, underscoring robust market engagement around this question. The combined effect of strong volume, whale alignment, and a substantial price jump signals heightened confidence among market participants.
Such a pronounced shift in probabilities on a high-profile geopolitical event highlights how quickly information or sentiment can change on Polymarket. The whale confirmation of the price rally adds weight to the market’s current consensus, making this contract a focal point for observers tracking government transparency on UFO disclosures.
| Market | Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 15? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2730727 |
| 24h price change | +41.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 88.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 47.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $65K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-10. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.