The Polymarket question “Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 15?” saw its YES price soar by 44.0 percentage points over the last 24 hours, climbing from an estimated 47.5% to 91.5% as of July 10, 2026. This dramatic shift reflects a rapid market reassessment of the likelihood that new UFO documents will be released before the mid-July deadline.
Trading volume for the market in the same period reached $45K, indicating solid liquidity behind the move. Notably, whale activity aligned with this price surge, confirming the rally rather than opposing it. This concurrence between large traders and the broader tape suggests a strong consensus forming around the increased probability of declassification.
The synchronized flow and price action imply that the market is responding to new information or sentiment shifts with conviction. The nearly doubling of the odds within a day underscores heightened expectations and a narrowing of uncertainty regarding the UFO files’ release timeline.
Overall, the combined price advance and whale participation signal robust market agreement on the event’s likelihood, marking a clear revaluation in the contract’s prospects on Polymarket.
| Market | Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 15? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2730727 |
| 24h price change | +44.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 91.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 47.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $45K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-10. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.