Polymarket’s “Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 15?” contract surged sharply in the past 24 hours, with the YES price climbing 25.5 percentage points from an estimated 62.0% to 87.5% as of July 10, 2026. This decisive move reflects a significant shift in market sentiment on the likelihood of new UFO files being made public by the former president within the specified timeframe.
The price increase coincided with whale trading activity that aligned closely with the upward price momentum, confirming the market’s repricing rather than pushing against it. Polymarket recorded $34K in 24-hour volume on the contract, underscoring robust investor interest and liquidity during this repricing event.
The convergence of whale flow and price action suggests coordinated conviction behind the bullish reassessment of this outcome. With the YES contract now priced at 87.5%, the market is signaling a strong consensus expectation that Trump will indeed release new UFO documents by mid-July.
This repricing and whale confirmation indicate a notable change in information or sentiment driving the market, highlighting the contract as a focal point for tracking evolving expectations around government transparency on UFOs.
| Market | Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 15? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2730727 |
| 24h price change | +25.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 87.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 62.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $34K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-10. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.