The probability of the “Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?” contract on Polymarket dropped sharply by 29.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours, sliding from 61.5% to 32.5%. This significant repricing reflects a major shift in market sentiment on the likelihood of the ceasefire holding through the end of July.
Notably, this price move occurred amid a divergence between whale activity and price action. Whales increased their YES position despite the overall price decline, indicating a disconnect between large traders’ flow and the broader market’s selling pressure. The $39K in 24-hour volume points to active trading but suggests that the consensus view is moving against the ceasefire continuing, even as whales appear to bet on its persistence.
This opposing dynamic between whale flow and price movement highlights uncertainty or conflicting information among market participants.
The combination of a steep probability drop and whale accumulation signals a complex market reaction rather than a straightforward consensus. It underscores the evolving and nuanced risk assessment around the Israel-Iran ceasefire in Polymarket’s prediction ecosystem.
| Market | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2952486 |
| 24h price change | +29.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 32.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 61.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $39K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-19. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.