The probability that Max Martin will attend Taylor Swift’s wedding surged 36.3 percentage points over the past 24 hours, climbing from an estimated 31.0% to 67.3% on Polymarket. This sharp repricing reflects a substantial shift in market sentiment within a single day.
Whale activity tracked closely with the price move, confirming the rally. Over the same period, 66 unique whales contributed $9K in buy volume and $5K in sell volume, resulting in a net $4K inflow into YES contracts. This whale buying accounted for a significant share of the $10K total 24-hour volume on the market, indicating concentrated interest from large traders.
The market has accumulated $148K in lifetime volume from 402 unique traders, showing steady engagement around this celebrity event question. The alignment between whale flows and the price jump suggests that informed or sizable participants are driving the shift, rather than isolated retail bets.
The combined price and flow data signal growing confidence among major players that Max Martin’s attendance is increasingly likely. The doubling of the YES price within 24 hours, supported by whale buying, marks a notable revaluation in this celebrity attendance market.
| Market | Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift’s wedding? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 941765 |
| 24h price change | +36.3 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 67.3% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 31.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 67.3% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $4K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $9K / $5K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 66 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $10K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 402 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-19. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.