The Polymarket contract “Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 15?” saw its YES price surge 46.5 percentage points in the last 24 hours, climbing from 41.0% to 87.5% as of July 10, 2026. This dramatic repricing reflects a major shift in market expectations about the likelihood of new UFO files being declassified within the next five days.
Supporting this sharp move, whale activity aligned with the price trend, indicating that large traders increased their exposure to the YES outcome as the market rapidly adjusted. The $31K volume over the same period underscores significant trading interest accompanying the price rise.
The combined increase in both price and whale flow signals growing conviction in the probability of a July 15 release. The market’s rapid revaluation and the confirmation from sizable trades suggest participants are responding to new information or sentiment driving expectations higher. This coordinated movement between tape and whales highlights the market’s consensus shift rather than a divergence in views.
Overall, the data points to a strong market belief that Trump will release new UFO files by the mid-July deadline, with major traders reinforcing this narrative through their positions.
| Market | Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 15? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2730727 |
| 24h price change | +46.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 87.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 41.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $31K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-10. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.