The probability that the Cook Islands Party will win the most seats in the 2026 parliamentary elections surged by 30.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours, rising from 50.0% to 80.5% on Polymarket.
This sharp repricing was accompanied by whale flow that aligned with the price move, indicating that large traders supported the shift higher in the market’s odds. Total 24-hour volume on the market reached $11K, reflecting active participation during the rally.
The combined movement of price and whale flow suggests growing conviction about the Cook Islands Party’s chances in the upcoming elections. The alignment between on-chain large trades and price action signals that the market’s reassessment of this outcome is backed by significant capital.
As of the snapshot on July 18, 2026, the market’s dramatic increase in implied probability highlights a notable shift in sentiment, with participants increasingly pricing in a Cook Islands Party majority. This repricing and whale activity together underscore the evolving market consensus ahead of the elections.
| Market | Will Cook Islands Party win the most seats in the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2953600 |
| 24h price change | +30.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 80.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 50.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $11K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-18. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.