The probability that Max Martin will attend Taylor Swift’s wedding surged 23.9 percentage points in the last 24 hours on Polymarket, rising from 29.5% to 53.4%. This sharp repricing reflects a significant shift in market sentiment around the event.
The price move was supported by whale activity, which aligned with the upward price trend. Over the same period, whales contributed a net $5K into YES contracts, with $11K in buy volume against $6K in sell volume, indicating sustained confidence among large traders. Sixty-seven unique whales participated, underscoring broad whale engagement driving the price higher.
Overall 24-hour volume on the market reached $11K, contributing to a lifetime market volume of $147K with 394 unique traders involved since inception. The combined price surge and whale support suggest growing conviction in the likelihood of Max Martin’s attendance, marking a notable shift in expectations that has moved the market from a roughly one-in-three chance to better than even odds.
| Market | Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift’s wedding? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 941765 |
| 24h price change | +23.9 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 53.4% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 29.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 53.7% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $5K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $11K / $6K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 67 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $11K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 394 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-18. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.