The probability that the Israel x Iran ceasefire will continue through July 22 surged by 19.5 percentage points in the past 24 hours on Polymarket, rising from 64.0% to 83.5%. This sharp increase represents a significant shift in trader sentiment over a single day.
Whale flow confirmed the price move, aligning with the tape as major market participants increased their net exposure to YES contracts. The 24-hour trading volume reached $10K, highlighting active engagement in this contract amid evolving geopolitical developments.
This coordinated price and flow movement suggests growing confidence among large traders that the ceasefire will hold through the specified date. The alignment of whale activity with the rising odds reinforces the market’s updated consensus, rather than a divergence between price and capital allocation.
Overall, the combined surge in price and whale support signals a meaningful repricing of risk in this market, reflecting fresh information or changing perceptions about the conflict’s trajectory through late July.
| Market | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2952471 |
| 24h price change | +19.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 83.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 64.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $10K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-18. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.