The probability that former President Trump will declassify new UFO files by July 15 rose sharply by 43.5 percentage points in the last 24 hours, climbing from 39.5% to 83.0% on Polymarket.
This surge in the YES contract price coincided with whale trading activity that aligned with the price move, indicating that large traders supported the rising odds rather than opposing them. The market saw $28K in volume during this period, reflecting increased interest and conviction behind the shift.
The combined price and whale flow data suggest growing market confidence in the likelihood of new UFO files being released before the mid-July deadline. This repricing represents a significant shift in sentiment within a single day, underscoring how rapidly information or sentiment can move probabilities in prediction markets like Polymarket.
Overall, the strong alignment between whale activity and the price increase signals a coordinated reassessment of this outcome’s chances, reinforcing the market’s updated view on the event.
| Market | Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 15? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2730727 |
| 24h price change | +43.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 83.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 39.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $28K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-10. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.