The probability that the Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31 jumped 52.0 percentage points in the past 24 hours on Polymarket, climbing from an estimated 9.5% to 61.5%. This sharp repricing reflects a significant shift in market sentiment regarding the conflict’s short-term outlook.
Whale activity aligned closely with this price move, supporting the surge in YES contracts. The coordinated flow and price action suggest that large traders are backing the higher odds of the ceasefire holding through the end of July. The 24-hour volume on this market totaled $13K, indicating a moderate level of trading interest accompanying the price rally.
This combined price and whale flow dynamic signals a growing consensus among Polymarket participants that the ceasefire will persist through July 31. The alignment between whale buying and the rising YES price strengthens the conviction behind this repricing, marking a notable shift in expectations for this geopolitical event.
| Market | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2952486 |
| 24h price change | +52.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 61.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 9.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $13K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-18. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.